Same winner on Keyword Raffles

[Dvotee]

I run a few keyword raffles during an evening and I would think on average the same user wins approx 90 - 95% of the time. This user also wins his fair share of drag races as well but I think that's more luck.

My concern is viewers are now starting to question why the same person is winning so many. All I do is offer coins depending on what I have done (e.g. I win a drag race, I offer the coins as a keyword raffle)

Could this be a coding issue/bug and is there any way for me to check. It does seem strange that the same user is always winning be it 2 people enter of 15 enter. I don't have a massive viewer ship so we are not talking 100's of entries per draw

[Dvotee]

No input from Experts or anyone else?

[TheNumbLock]

Why not just re-roll?

[Dvotee]

That doesn't solve the issue or even assist me in seeing if there is an issue.

To say why not just re-roll means if he wins, I re-roll everytime so he never wins. The roll should be 'random' should it not?

 I just want to know if there is a bug somewhere or any other factor that can be looked at.

[Dante557]

Your draw pool is too small to make a conclusive judgement on the issue here. I will say that Random Number Generators (I.e. what programs use to create the illusion of randomness) are not actually random, they are pseudo-random.

The random drawings are seeded (Probably with the current time) so they are as random as they can possibly be. Does he/she enter in the same position every time (In a 10 person raffle, he/she is always the 4th person to enter) or do they enter at different stages?

You will find with a small pool of people the same people will regularly win. if it was 50 people and he was winning most of the time then this would be cause for concern as there would probably be a problem with how the RNG works. 

Thanks,
Dante557

[Dvotee]

Thanks Dante

I will look into the idea of when does this person enter as quite often he is the first one to start a heist or a dragrace. Viewers comment on how he must sit there and wait for them to be available.

In fact I did a game giveaway last night via !raffle. He entered and was the first one to enter and won. Again he won most heists and out of the 4-5 dragraces I think he got 3 correct.

Yes the pools are small but even then the law of averages surely have to dictate that the same person can't win 'most'

[Dante557]

Lets test this out using a no science or mathematics what so ever. Using http://www.random.org as the selection for each of the following

Lets consider for the "Same Place Everytime" scenario s/he enters 1st

Code: [Select]

1, 5, 8, 3, 7, 3, 9, 7, 1, 9
1st appears twice, 9th appears twice and 7th appears twice. This would of course gain him/her 2 wins out of 10. Not bad by any stretch of the word but certainly not most of the time.

Now for our second test lets use the results from the last test and pump out 10 more numbers from random.org.

Code: [Select]

7, 8, 3, 3, 6, 7, 7, 1, 2, 4
In this situation s/he would have only won once with a pair of 3's matching. In an ideal world this is how it'd work out. However as you can see the number 7 appears 3 times and the number 3 appears twice. Again certainly not most of the time but that's assume he'd follow the working of a RNG himself. With bigger ranges this pattern should be hopefully be non existent but may still appear from time to time. Unlike lets say the lottery the numbers don't get chosen and then not used again for the duration of that drawing.

For reading pleasure here is some sample data for a few higher data ranges

Code: (15 entries, 10 rolls) [Select]

11, 5, 10, 2, 15, 1, 12, 11, 6, 3

Code: (10 entries, 15 rolls) [Select]

9, 4, 3, 9, 5, 1, 4, 7, 10, 9, 7, 9, 1, 1, 1
And, yes, 1 did really appear 3 times one after the other.

Anyway, I've probably complicated matters further so with this long post, I take my leave

[Dvotee]

WOW Dante

Thanks for your time spent on this. I'll just have to accept that it's random and he's just a very lucky boy. Well realistically it's not me but the other viewers but with this info I can at least say I have looked into it and can also point anyone who really questions it to this post.

I can't thank you enough for your time - I really do appreciate it.